The impact of the second lockdown has so far been less severe than the first lockdown. Simple calculations show that in 2021-Q1 GDP could fall by 4.4% QoQ in the USA and by 6% in the euro zone.

Anyone who bought a bitcoin for €19,497.40 on 16 December 2017 lost 83 per cent of their stake in a year and was still sitting on a 74 per cent loss on 16 March 2020. But those who remained loyal could double their stake by mid-January 2021.

We look back on the turbulent year 2020. The Flossbach von Storch Research Institute has closely followed the changes in the economy, politics and society.

Although the first vaccinations have begun, the Coronavirus pandemic will continue to have a decisive impact on the coming year. This is indicated by the data of our "Real Economy Tracker".

Viral infections follow a cyclical pattern. The coronavirus does not follow a mere biological cycle, but its trajectory is also shaped by social dynamics. Instead of a bell-shaped curve the virus spreads in waves.

With constantly increasing new infections of the coronavirus worldwide, a second wave taking place in western Europe and the lack of a clear prospect of a vaccine, China and the US have the better economic prospects for the rest of 2020 and 2021. The ...