Last year, large central banks financed their countries' new debt on a big scale. The European Central Bank was particularly active.

“Inflation is temporary and central banks have it under control” Vs. “As central banks have massively increased money supply inflation is around the corner”. The fate of central banks will depend on which narrative will win.

The impact of the second lockdown has so far been less severe than the first lockdown. Simple calculations show that in 2021-Q1 GDP could fall by 4.4% QoQ in the USA and by 6% in the euro zone.

Although the first vaccinations have begun, the Coronavirus pandemic will continue to have a decisive impact on the coming year. This is indicated by the data of our "Real Economy Tracker".

Viral infections follow a cyclical pattern. The coronavirus does not follow a mere biological cycle, but its trajectory is also shaped by social dynamics. Instead of a bell-shaped curve the virus spreads in waves.

With constantly increasing new infections of the coronavirus worldwide, a second wave taking place in western Europe and the lack of a clear prospect of a vaccine, China and the US have the better economic prospects for the rest of 2020 and 2021. The ...