The introduction of the euro was linked to expectations of convergence of economic cycles and longer-term income trends. These expectations have not been fulfilled and, especially after the Covid 19 shock, it will be increasingly difficult to meet th ...

Since the 17th century, we have wanted to measure the future with the help of probability theory. To do this, mathematically incomprehensible uncertainty must be transformed into mathematically measurable risks. However, the measurement of the future ...

The European Union is more and more vulnerable to shocks, with the costs of keeping the union together increasingly burdensome for the taxpayers in the creditor countries. This casts doubts about the future of the block.   *In cooperation with ...

In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis 2008-2009 and European debt crisis 2011-2012, the public debt ratios in G7 countries increased on average by altogether 40% of GDP. The coronavirus pandemic is likely to generate a much higher fiscal dam ...

As an answer to the looming economic crisis amid the coronavirus pandemic, several governments in the euro area announced very substantial rescue packages. As a consequence, public debt will increase strongly. For a number of countries the debt will ...

The increase of the public debt ratio in Italy as a result of measures to fight the coronavirus pandemic and of the recession will sooner or later require an intense effort to ensure the solvency of the Italian state.