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Studies

01.01.2014 - Macroeconomics

Disintegration versus divergence: The EMU Experience

by Agnieszka GehringerPablo Duarte

Video
The introduction of the euro was linked to expectations of convergence of economic cycles and longer-term income trends. These expectations have not been fulfilled and, especially after the Covid 19 shock, it will be increasingly difficult to meet th ...

04.09.2020 - Macroeconomics

European (Monetary) Union: Until death do us apart*

by Agnieszka Gehringer

The European Union is more and more vulnerable to shocks, with the costs of keeping the union together increasingly burdensome for the taxpayers in the creditor countries. This casts doubts about the future of the block.   *In cooperation with ...

26.03.2020 - Macroeconomics

Post-corona fiscal quagmire

by Agnieszka Gehringer

In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis 2008-2009 and European debt crisis 2011-2012, the public debt ratios in G7 countries increased on average by altogether 40% of GDP. The coronavirus pandemic is likely to generate a much higher fiscal dam ...

18.03.2020 - Macroeconomics

The merger of fiscal policy and monetary policy in the euro area

by Agnieszka Gehringer

As an answer to the looming economic crisis amid the coronavirus pandemic, several governments in the euro area announced very substantial rescue packages. As a consequence, public debt will increase strongly. For a number of countries the debt will ...

17.03.2020 - Macroeconomics

Corona crisis: Italy’s government finances under pressure

by Agnieszka Gehringer

The increase of the public debt ratio in Italy as a result of measures to fight the coronavirus pandemic and of the recession will sooner or later require an intense effort to ensure the solvency of the Italian state.

11.10.2019 - Macroeconomics

Introducing the FvS Business Cycle Indicator for Germany

by Thomas MayerAgnieszka GehringerAgnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer

[Translate to English:]
Video
Developments of the FvS BCI so far this year suggest that recession could have started in April 2019. But a final judgement based on our methodology will have to wait until we have seen the recession trough.
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