16.04.2019 - Studies

The ghost of the European doom loop


The stocks of sovereign debt held by banks especially in countries with vulnerable public finances and weaker banking systems have increased of late.

 

The stocks of government debt in the bank balance sheets of the southern European member states of the euro zone, which are also those with weak public finances, rose significantly from 1.2% to almost 14% in Portugal, from 5.4% to 12.1% in Italy and from 3.1% to 9.4% in Spain. Either could a further deterioration of public finances cause a banking crisis or growing problems in the banking sector could lead to a sovereign debt crisis.


1 Siehe Kapitel 1 “Vulnerabilities in a maturing credit cycle” im Global Financial Stability Report des IWF, April 2019. Der Report ist abrufbar unter: www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2019/03/27/Global-Financial-Stability-Report-April-2019.

2 “Agreement on emergency liquidity assistance”, June 2017, abrufbar unter: www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/Agreement_on_emergency_liquidity_assistance_20170517.en.pdf.

3 Ebd., § 6.1.

4 Diese Verluste könnten bis zu einem gewissen Grad verringert werden, indem Staatsanleihebestände von Mark-to-Market-Konten in Hold-to-Maturity Portfolios verschoben werden. Wie der IWF in seinem Bericht zur Finanzstabilität berichtet (siehe Fußnote 1 für die Referenz), wird diese Tendenz derzeit bei einigen Banken beobachtet. Diese Anpassungen würden jedoch nur die Verluste verringern, sie jedoch nicht eliminieren. Darüber hinaus geht durch die Umstellung auf Held-to-Maturity-Konten die Flexibilität der Bilanz verloren, da diese Umbuchung der Wertpapiere nach IAS 39.51 nicht mehr rückgängig gemacht werden kann.

5 Siehe “Technical features of Outright Monetary Transactions”, ECB Press Release, 6. September, 2012, abrufbar unter: www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2012/html/pr120906_1.en.html.

6 Für weitere Details siehe Agnieszka Gehringer (2019), “Das Paradoxon der langfristigen Refinanzierungsgeschäfte der EZB”, Flossbach von Storch Research Institute, Makroanalyse 06/03/2019.

7 Dies geht aus den Reports des European Systemic Risk Board (2015), “Report on the regulatory treatment of sovereign exposures”, des Sachverständigen Rates in seinem Jahresbericht 2015, und des Basler Kommittes für die Banksupervision (2017), “The regulatory treatment of sovereign exposures – discussion paper” hervor.

8 Siehe, z. B., Sapir, A. and Schoenmaker, D. (2017), “The time is right for a European Monetary Fund”, Bruegel Policy Brief No. 4.

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