16.08.2018 - Macroeconomics

Rise of the Dragon 4.0

by Agnieszka Gehringer Norbert F. Tofall

By 2025, China is expected to become a technologically independent high-tech superpower. But what is the reaction to this plan? Keeping China economically small is neither legitimate nor wise and it will not succeed. An economically growing China is ...

18.07.2018 - Macroeconomics

US monetary policy in the trade war

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Trade wars have the potential to create additional inflationary pressures before economic activity weakens. US monetary policy could be more restrictive at first, but then more expansionary again.

08.06.2018 - Macroeconomics

Italy's "government of change" and public finances out of balance

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Italy's political risk is not expected to diminish soon. The coalition of Five Stars and Lega has been revived. This means that negative prospects for Italy's public finances are once again topical.

13.04.2018 - Macroeconomics

US dollar weakness under the microscope

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Why is the US dollar so weak? After all, a similar policy-mix of a tax reform and monetary tightening by the Fed at the beginning of the 1980s led to a 40-percent appreciation of the US currency.

08.03.2018 - Society & Finance

Smart beta ETFs – Euphemism par excellence

by Agnieszka Gehringer Kai Lehmann

Few trends on capital markets have received so much attention as the strong growth of exchange traded funds (ETFs). Within this asset class, the so called smart beta (SB) products enjoy ever growing popularity.

28.02.2018 - Macroeconomics

Protectionism returns to US policy agenda

by Agnieszka Gehringer

US protectionism is back. Selective trade barriers would hurt employment in the affected industries, but there would be no damage at the macro level and on the stock markets.
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