FvS Wealth Price Series for the Euro Area


H2-2023: Divergence in the eurozone

While asset prices fell in France and Germany, they rose in Greece, Portugal and Spain. The change in expectations regarding further interest rate hikes towards the end of 2023 shaped price trends.

With a change of just +0.6% compared to the end of the previous year, asset prices in the eurozone stagnated. The sideways movement in asset prices in the eurozone has now been ongoing for two and a half years and is caused by asset prices falling in the two largest countries in the eurozone, Germany and France, while stagnating or rising in the other countries.

The Flossbach von Storch Wealth Price Series for the Euro Area measures the price development of assets owned by private households in selected Eurozone countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain). The price index for the Eurozone and for the individual countries is calculated as the weighted price development of tangible assets (real estate, business assets, durable consumer goods as well as collective and speculative goods) and financial assets (savings deposits, shares, bonds, other financial assets). The index for Germany included in the FvS Wealth Price Series for the Euro Area differs from the FvS Wealth Price Index for Germany, which is published separately on a quarterly basis, due to the availability of comparable data in the Eurozone.

Asset Prices of European Households: Further price correction

After asset prices for private households in the eurozone had risen for almost ten years, the turnaround in interest rates and consumer price inflation put an end to the growth momentum. Asset prices were still at a record level in the middle of the previous year and then fell in the second half of 2022. Prices recovered slightly in the spring of 2023 and finally moved sideways in the second quarter of 2023. Compared to the middle of the previous year, there was a slight fall in asset prices in the eurozone of -1.2 %.

The turnaround in asset prices is closely linked to the turnaround in monetary policy. The monetary and fiscal policy support measures taken during the coronavirus pandemic boosted consumer price inflation, which came up against an already greatly expanded money supply and was further exacerbated by the economic consequences of the global lockdowns and the war in Ukraine. Both the European Central Bank and other major central banks reacted to consumer price inflation and the rise in market interest rates by raising their key interest rates. In addition, rising consumer prices and high energy costs stoked fears of an impending recession. The combination of effects meant that the growth trend for capital goods came to an end.

While asset price inflation declined slightly in the aggregate of all eurozone countries, the range across the cross-section of countries is high. It ranges from -7.2 % in Germany to +18.0 % in Greece.

Real assets in the Euro area: Real estate prices fall

Real assets make up the majority of the total assets of the average household in the eurozone and have a decisive influence on the development of the overall index. Real estate accounts for the largest share of real assets and thus also of the total assets of private households. Prices for the real estate assets of private households in the eurozone fell by -1.3% compared to the end of the previous year. The fall in prices occurred in only four of the ten countries surveyed and is attributable to the abandonment of the low interest rate policy. In Greece (+12.1 %), Portugal (+7.8 %) and Spain (+4.3 %), on the other hand, real estate prices rose significantly, which is primarily due to a catch-up effect rather than a change in the interest rate environment. Real estate prices in these countries suffered massively during the euro crisis and were only able to recover to a limited extent even in times of low interest rates.

Prices for business wealth (privately owned companies) traded +7.3% higher at the end of the year than at the end of the previous year. In addition to the differing economic prospects of the eurozone countries, expectations regarding the future development of key interest rates played an important role. As the likelihood of further interest rate hikes fell at the end of the year, prices for business wealth stabilized or, in some cases, rose again. The price increase was particularly strong in Greece (+49.1%) and in Spain and Italy (+20.3% each).

Prices for consumer durables in the eurozone reflected the general rise in asset price inflation. Compared to the end of the previous year, prices rose by +2.9%. The increase was particularly pronounced in Belgium and the Netherlands (+5.5% and +6.2% respectively). Finland was largely unaffected by the rise in prices for consumer durables (+0.8%).

Collectibles and speculative items increased in price by +3.5% compared to the end of the previous year. On the one hand, the upward trend since the end of the coronavirus pandemic continued, while on the other hand the price increase slowed due to the uncertain economic situation in the eurozone.

Financial assets in the Euro area: Prices on bond markets rise again

Bond prices had reached their lowest point in the third quarter of 2023, driven by the interest rate environment. Bond prices recovered again when expectations regarding future interest rate hikes changed and the expectation of an initial peak in interest rates emerged. Compared to the end of the previous year, bonds in the eurozone were +1.3 % more expensive at the end of 2024 than at the end of the previous year. At +2.0%, the increase was most pronounced in Italy, while the recovery was least pronounced in Spain, Austria and Belgium at just +0.8%.

Share prices recovered throughout the eurozone and rose by +12.8 %. Here, too, the trend in interest rates was reflected, but dampened by the economic growth prospects. While the price performance of German shares was in the midfield at +12.8 %, Portuguese shares only achieved price growth of +4.3 %. The recovery was most pronounced in Greece with a price increase of +24.4% and in Spain with +21.9%.

The price of other financial assets, which is measured by the price of gold and commodities traded on the stock exchange, was up +4.4% on the previous year. While the price of gold rose by ten percent over 2024, commodity prices fell due to the economic situation.

The prices for savings and sight deposits remain unchanged by definition.

Consumer prices: Consumer prices continue to rise

Consumer price inflation according to the harmonized index of consumer prices in the eurozone (HICP) was +2.9% at the end of the year and was therefore higher than asset price inflation. The growth momentum of consumer price inflation slowed somewhat. At +4.2 %, consumer price inflation was highest in Austria and lowest in Finland at +0.6 %.