We track the development of the real economy in real time using high-frequency data such as electricity consumption, mobility data and internet search intensity of relevant keywords for Germany, the US and China.
Real Economy Outlook
The post-pandemic economic recovery in the US started at the end of 2020, while the countries of the Eurozone were busy dealing with a third coronavirus infection wave and with the bureaucracy and logistics of the vaccination programs. The Eurozone countries are therefore expected to realize recovery dynamics similar to the US by the end of 2021 Q2. China is cooling down and experiencing a combination of high input prices and a stronger currency. In the US, consumer price inflation pressures are strongest among the industrialized economies.