17 09 2024 - Macroeconomics

ECB powerless? How the FED is shaping the fall in German interest rates

by Philipp Becker & Philipp Immenkötter

The decline in interest rates on long-term German government bonds since 1989 is largely due to the FOMC meetings of the Fed. The ECB has almost no influence on long-term interest rates.

The Euro Meltdown

"In accordance with Article 127(1) and Article 282(2) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, the primary objective of the ESCB shall be to maintain price stability."

Source: Official Journal of the European Union 

FvS Wealth Price Index for Germany

Asset price inflation in Germany was -1.3% at the end of the first quarter of 2024. While prices fell in the middle of last year in the wake of interest rate hikes, they stabilized in the first quarter of 2024 due to possible interest rate cuts.

FvS Wealth Price Series for the Euro Area

The turnaround in interest rates led to falling asset prices in the northern countries of the eurozone in mid-2023. In the southern countries, a catch-up effect led to asset prices rising despite rising interest rates.

FvS Business Cycle Indicator for Germany

The FvS Konjunkturindikator (FvS-KI) maps the actual economic activity in Germany on a monthly basis, based on a set of hard real economic data. On the basis of the FvS-KI we carry out business cycle dating for Germany.

FvS Real Economy Tracker

We track the development of the real economy in real time. Our activity index and other indicators are updated weekly.

FvS Inflation Tracker

We follow the development of consumer and producer prices. Rising commodity prices can lead to rising wages and thus to rising prices.