The Flossbach von Storch Research Institute

FvS Business Cycle Indicator

The FvS Business Cycle Indicator (FvS-BCI) tracks the actual economic activity in Germany on a monthly basis, based on a set of hard real economic data. Based on the FvS-BCI, we perform the business cycle dating for Germany.

Click here for the FvS Business Cycle Indicator

Commentaries

30.03.2021 - Economics, Politics & Philosophy

The dilution of the rule of law in the European Union

by Thomas Mayer

Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union lists "the rule of law" as one of the values on which the Union is founded. It likes to adorn itself with this. But the adornment is fading and the hypocrisy is increasing.

30.03.2021 - Macroeconomics

Submission: Public Debt Financing by Central Banks

by Pablo Duarte Thomas Mayer

Last year, large central banks financed their countries' new debt on a big scale. The European Central Bank was particularly active.

26.03.2021 - Economics, Politics & Philosophy

Who does sanctions help in international politics?

by Norbert F. Tofall

The EU and US sanctions will not help the Uyghurs in the camps in Xinjiang. Sanctions feign a capacity for action on the part of the West that the West must first regain.

View all commentaries

Studies

31.03.2021 - Society & Finance

Active versus passive: Bond investors beware!

by Agnieszka Gehringer Kai Lehmann

Even though on average the active bond managers and the index are roughly on par, the distribution of returns shows that some managers are able to beat the index.

05.03.2021 - Macroeconomics

Danger of inflation! Why everyone is talking about inflation now

by Marius Kleinheyer Thomas Mayer

Video

After almost 30 years, inflation is about to return. Find out why it could return right now and how savers can protect themselves against it in this video.

03.03.2021 - Companies

The risk of the single share

by Philipp Immenkötter

Over a short-term period, less than half of all German stocks generate a positive return. In the long run, the return is positive for only six out of ten stocks. Moreover, one in five shares suffers an almost complete loss of value in the long-term.

View all studies

Press

Currency Competition: The Renewed Interest in Cryptocurrencies

Debate of a global currency war

The Euro at 20: A New Deal to Save the Euro

View all press articles