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28.06.2023 - Macroeconomics

Someday inflation will also be "transitory”

by Pablo Duarte

Despite the normalization of energy and consumer goods prices, inflation remains undefeated. At some point, inflation will come down again, and like everything else in this world, inflation will then also have been "transitory”.

04.10.2022 - Macroeconomics

The blockade in monetary and fiscal policy

by Pablo Duarte

Fiscal policy is becoming more expansionary to mitigate the effects of inflation. Monetary policy would now have to become very restrictive to counterbalance the expansion. Yet this threatens to trigger new financial crises.

13.06.2022 - Macroeconomics

How close is the next recession?

by Pablo Duarte

While in the U. S. the real economy remains resilient and investors fear a slowdown due to a more restrictive monetary policy, the euro zone is suffering from its energy dependence on Russia. This could consolidate a "stagflation" for a longer time.

13.04.2022 - Macroeconomics

Stagflation and Deglobalization

by Pablo Duarte

Stagflation and deglobalization are weighing on the global economy. The U.S. is likely to be least affected, the euro area most. China's economy depends on its covid policy, the financial risks in the real estate sector, and its positioning in the Uk ...

22.03.2022 - Economics, Politics & Philosophy

The new East-West Conflict

by Pablo DuarteThomas Mayer

In a new era, the Eastern dictatorships of Russia and China compete with Western democratic civil societies. The West is clearly superior both economically and militarily, but only if it stands together.

13.08.2021 - Macroeconomics

Emerging markets and the Fed: what will matter for the next "tapering"?

by Pablo Duarte

In the event of renewed capital outflows, developing and emerging economies with robust political structures will best weather a new taper tantrum.
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