Despite the normalization of energy and consumer goods prices, inflation remains undefeated. At some point, inflation will come down again, and like everything else in this world, inflation will then also have been "transitory”.

Fiscal policy is becoming more expansionary to mitigate the effects of inflation. Monetary policy would now have to become very restrictive to counterbalance the expansion. Yet this threatens to trigger new financial crises.

While in the U. S. the real economy remains resilient and investors fear a slowdown due to a more restrictive monetary policy, the euro zone is suffering from its energy dependence on Russia. This could consolidate a "stagflation" for a longer time.

Stagflation and deglobalization are weighing on the global economy. The U.S. is likely to be least affected, the euro area most. China's economy depends on its covid policy, the financial risks in the real estate sector, and its positioning in the Uk ...

In a new era, the Eastern dictatorships of Russia and China compete with Western democratic civil societies. The West is clearly superior both economically and militarily, but only if it stands together.

In the event of renewed capital outflows, developing and emerging economies with robust political structures will best weather a new taper tantrum.