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14.06.2019 - Macroeconomics

La négligence parfait

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Worsening French fundamentals should bring France more in line with Italy. Accordingly, some convergence between the French and Italian government bond yields may be justified.

11.06.2019 - Macroeconomics

Make a wish come true – On the value of economic forecasts

by Agnieszka Gehringer, Kai Lehmann

Inaccurate economic forecasts have deeper reasons than just uncertainty about the future. However, the incentives for this are quite different for companies on the one hand and for macro experts on the other.

16.04.2019 - Macroeconomics

The ghost of the European doom loop

by Agnieszka Gehringer

The stocks of sovereign debt held by banks especially in countries with vulnerable public finances and weaker banking systems have increased of late. Either could a further deterioration of public finances cause a banking crisis or growing problems i ...

06.03.2019 - Macroeconomics

The paradox of the ECB long-term refinancing operations

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Were TLTROs to expire or become more expensive, the interest margins of banks – especially in Southern Europe (Italy and Spain) – would be negatively hit and the credit impulse would weaken.

18.02.2019 - Macroeconomics

The trick of the Italian budget law

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Italy escaped the EU excessive deficit procedure for now because the Italian government has curbed the three main electoral promises by underestimating the costs of the planned measures.

15.02.2019 - Macroeconomics

How bad are bad loans still in Italy?

by Agnieszka Gehringer

The share of net bad loans over total loans is falling, but gross bad loans in absolute terms continued to rise, implying that the source of bad debt has not been tamed.

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