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11.10.2019 - Macroeconomics

Introducing the FvS Business Cycle Indicator for Germany

by Thomas Mayer, Agnieszka Gehringer

Video
Developments of the FvS BCI so far this year suggest that recession could have started in April 2019. But a final judgement based on our methodology will have to wait until we have seen the recession trough.

09.09.2019 - Macroeconomics

Time for central banks to be creative?

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Due to the weakening inflation expectations and trade war’s uncertainties, major central banks are expected to implement strategies to prevent an accident.

13.08.2019 - Macroeconomics

The green reallocation

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Policymakers have plunged into climate actionism and set ever stricter climate goals. This can have unintended social and economic consequences.

24.07.2019 - Interest rates

Surprise potential in the summer slump

by Agnieszka Gehringer

The upcoming monetary policy decisions of both the ECB and the Fed therefore have the potential to surprise the market.

26.06.2019 - Macroeconomics

US-China trade war: Collateral damage

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Direct effects of the trade war are contained. More serious is the collateral damage on confidence.

14.06.2019 - Macroeconomics

La négligence parfaite

by Agnieszka Gehringer

Worsening French fundamentals should bring France more in line with Italy. Accordingly, some convergence between the French and Italian government bond yields may be justified.

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